4 Common Misconceptions about The North Korean Nuclear Threat

How do you stop a disaster?

Lately, I haven’t been able to get this question out of my head.

Over the past year North Korea has been the subject of Breaking News on nearly every major network. And rightfully so — North Korea has made major strides in their nuclear weapons program. Just this month, North Korea launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) over Japan.

We are quickly getting closer to a nuclear armageddon. But not because North Korea has nukes. Rather, because most of us haven’t taken the time to understand Kim Jong Un. So where do we typically get it wrong?

One: North Korea Wants to Nuke the US

There’s an obvious advantage in having a nuke: Job security.

Kim Jong Un’s goal is sensible, and one that many leaders want – to stay in power. It’s no coincidence that every permanent member of the UN’s Security Council has nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Un’s goal isn’t to bomb the United States. A preemptive nuclear strike from North Korea would result in an equal or more powerful counter-strike by the US, which would literally and metaphorically obliterate Kim’s goal.

So when would Kim use a nuclear bomb? Most likely, in response to the US using a nuclear bomb against North Korea. As stated by Kim Jong Un, North Korea is willing to negotiate its nuclear stockpile once the “US’s hostile policy and nuclear threat to the DPRK (North Korea) are definitely terminated.” Although the US isn’t going to abandon its nukes, Kim Jong Un’s rhetoric suggests his efforts to weaponize North Korea align with a defensive strategy — not offensive.

However even the use of conventional forces against North Korea creates substantial risk. As noted by past Secretary of Defense, William Perry, a foreboding problem on the Korean Peninsula is the threat of a conventional war that leads to nuclear war. An arsenal of 30,000 US troops located in South Korea are available should tensions between North Korea and South Korea erupt. North Korea wouldn’t stand a chance against the US military. In the event of a conventional war, Kim may use his nuclear arsenal in a last-ditch effort to win.

So long as the US keeps peace on the Korean Peninsula, it’s not likely that North Korea will shoot off a nuke anytime soon.

Two: Kim Jong Un is Irrational and Unpredictable

Most people think Kim has gone senile. With one Google search you’ll find thousands of posts poking fun at his chubby cheeks, and his harmless threats. Five months ago Senator John McCain described Kim as the “crazy fat kid that’s running North Korea.”

But every person in power deserves respect, not necessarily on a personal level, but in terms of what they bring to the table. The threat of a miscalculation, because someone important misunderstood Kim’s actions and threats, is too grave to not take Kim seriously.

Most of what Kim has done makes sense. As noted by Anna Fifield, Kim’s actions to date have accomplished exactly what he wants: to stay in power. Kim’s family has manned the helm since 1948, and his own actions have kept him in power the past 5 years.

However, Kim does have some not-so-great qualities. He has executed hundreds of high level officials, including his half brother, Kim Jong-nam, who openly spoke against Kim’s regime. It’s easy to write Kim off as a madman when you only look at this side.

At the same time, North Korea’s economy has slowly, and steadily improved. Their nuclear weapons program has made incredible strides. And it has even been suggested that Kim’s weight gain was a result of him trying to look more like his highly-revered grandfather (Although if I got fat, I would hope my acquaintances thought that was the reason too).

Next time you start to think of Kim as a lunatic, remember how much that lunatic brings to the table. You might start to take his words a little more seriously.

Three: North Korea Can Bomb the US

It’s true that North Korea has nukes. By some accounts, Kim has between 10 to 60 warheads. And like we talked about earlier, Kim successfully launched an ICBM over Japan.

But does North Korea have the technology to launch a nuclear warhead at the United States? According to a small group of scientists, not yet.

Most of the missiles in North Korea’s arsenal are short, medium, and intermediate range, soviet-era launchers. While these missiles could launch a warhead as far as 2,000 miles, they aren’t quite strong enough to effectively deliver a nuke to the US. To hit the US, Kim needs ICBMs.

On July 4, North Korea tested its first ICBM. Analysis of the missile’s trajectory concluded that North Korea is capable of attacking the north western coast of the US. Similar tests were conducted on July 28, and August 29, with the missiles flying further each time.

However, there has been strong skepticism regarding these tests. Although North Korea claims the missiles can reach the US, Physicist Theodore Postel, Engineer Markus Schiller, and UN Weapons Inspector Robert Schmucker claim this is not the case. According to this group, the missiles tested in 2017 carried a reduced payload. If fitted with a much heavier object, like a warhead, these missiles would not reach the US. Additionally, the group concluded that each test, although appearing to offer steady improvement in trajectory, accomplished this by successively reducing each payload, rather than improving the thrust of the ICBMs.

At this point, it appears North Korea’s missile program is still in the works. However, there is no mistaking that Kim will soon have the capability of striking the US.

Four: We Can Stop a Missile Attack

The US government must have some way of stopping a nuclear attack … right? Maybe a super powerful laser that blasts any incoming missile to pieces. Or some kind of Top Secret force field that surrounds the US when an attack is launched. Well we do have something … but it has only worked about half the time.

It’s called the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system (GMD). It works by launching another missile at the nuclear warhead, intercepting the nuke while it’s outside the atmosphere. If you’re thinking that sounds difficult …. you’re right. The GMD tries to shoot a bullet out of the sky, with another bullet, that’s moving about 15,000 mph.

However it’s even more difficult than that. Now imagine the bullet you’re trying to shoot is surrounded by other fake bullets, and you have to directly hit the real bullet to stop it. On top of that, you don’t just have one bullet to stop — there are about 10 – 60 in the sky. Oh, and you only have about 15 minutes to get rid of all of them. Good luck.

Of the 18 times the GMD has been tested, it has only worked 10 times. Those aren’t great odds. Which is why it is so important that the US mitigates tensions by talking with diplomacy.

How do you stop a disaster? You understand the other side.